Abgeschickt von rolf am 13 Januar, 2006 um 23:27:15
Argentina Sovereign Update: Rumors of an Eventual Reopening Continue
n Ambito Financiero reported some weeks ago that the Argentine government was thinking seriously about the possibility of reopening the debt exchange to the holdout community. The statement was strongly denied by the government the following day. Nevertheless, the talk has, interestingly enough, not ceased to flow through the markets.
n From a long-term perspective, the theoretical normalization of US$19.6 billion in liabilities would be a material positive. Argentina’s current debt load stands at around US$126 billion (69% of GDP), according to the official information. That said, the official information accounts for the holdout liability, as if it had participated in the exchange. Without such a provision, the debt load accounts for US$135 billion, or 74% of 2005 dollar GDP.
n The lingering talk of an eventual reopening of the exchange is suspicious, in our view. To this end, we now believe that there is a better than 50% chance that we will see such a headline in the future.
<<Argentina_Update_011306.pdf>>
Argy Bond Run
USD BONDS ARS BONDS
Boden 12 79.80-80.10 Boden 07 21.55-21.70
Boden 13 83.00-83.30 Boden 08 25.10-25.25
Disc 88.25-88.55 Bocon Pre 8 63.00-63.30
Par 34.50-34.75 Bocon Pro 12 58.85-59.15
GDP 5.50-5.70 Bogar 46.05-46.40
Disc 39.55-39.65
Fx Reference 3.0625-3.0675 Par 16.30-16.50
Boden 14 33.30-33.55
GDP 1.67-1.71